· Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Beaconsfield Town vs Kingstonian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Beaconsfield Town and 1.99 for Kingstonian, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Beaconsfield Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beaconsfield Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kingstonian away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beaconsfield Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Beaconsfield Town and 1.99 for Kingstonian, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Beaconsfield Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheppey United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Biggleswade · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Enfield 1893 · 3-1 (W)
Kingstonian
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leatherhead · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Three Bridges · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Herne Bay · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Beaconsfield Town · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs South Park · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.