Beasain vs Lagun Onak Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Beasain and 1.06 for Lagun Onak, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Beasain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Beasain win

47.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Beasain home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lagun Onak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beasain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Beasain and 1.06 for Lagun Onak, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Beasain win47%

Draw26%

Lagun Onak win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–011.7%
2–19.2%
2–08.7%
0–18.3%

Recent form

Beasain

2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Derio · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Durango · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-0 (W)

Lagun Onak

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Ignacio · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad III · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Beasain win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.