The Eyrie · Analysis updated 02:59 UTC
Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Bedford Town and 1.45 for Spennymoor Town, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Bedford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bedford Town win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bedford Town home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spennymoor Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bedford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Bedford Town and 1.45 for Spennymoor Town, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Bedford Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hereford · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs King's Lynn Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 2-1 (W)
Spennymoor Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Emley · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Bedford Town 3-1 Spennymoor Town (National League - North)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Bedford Town 0-0 Spennymoor Town (National League - North)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Bedford Town 0-3 Spennymoor Town (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bedford Town win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.