Olympisch Stadion · Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
Beerschot VA vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 0.83 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Beerschot VA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beerschot VA win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beerschot VA home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
K. Lierse S.K. away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.2%
- 1–17.9%
Recent form
Beerschot VA
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs K. Lierse S.K. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 1-0 (W)
K. Lierse S.K.
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Beerschot VA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 3-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2026-02-01T12:30:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 2-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 1-0 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2024-03-08T19:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 2-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2023-09-24T17:15:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 3-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2023-05-13T14:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 1-2 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2023-03-05T15:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 1-0 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2023-02-04T19:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
- 2022-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · Beerschot VA 2-3 K. Lierse S.K. (Challenger Pro League)
Challenger Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lokeren-Temse | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Francs Borains | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Hasselt | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Excelsior Virton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Patro Eisden | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | K. Lierse S.K. | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | KRC Genk II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | KAA Gent II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Seraing United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Liège | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beerschot VA win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.