Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.86 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Beijing Guoan win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Beijing Guoan home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chongqing Tongliang Long away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.86 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Beijing Guoan win57%

Draw24%

Chongqing Tongliang Long win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.3%
1–111.4%
2–011.1%
2–19.6%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Beijing Guoan

2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)

Chongqing Tongliang Long

2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yunnan Yukun · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Henan Jianye · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	29	15	7	7	16	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	29	15	4	10	3	49
3	Beijing Guoan	29	14	10	5	21	47
4	Shandong Luneng	29	15	5	9	10	44
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	29	13	8	8	14	42
6	Yunnan Yukun	29	11	7	11	-3	40
7	Qingdao Youth Island	29	8	15	6	-6	39
8	Shanghai Shenhua	29	14	5	10	13	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	29	8	12	9	-3	36
10	Hangzhou Greentown	29	11	6	12	-3	34
11	Sichuan Jiuniu	29	9	5	15	-12	32
12	Tianjin Teda	29	11	8	10	4	31
13	Shenyang Urban	29	8	5	16	-11	29
14	Henan Jianye	29	8	10	11	-4	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	29	5	12	12	-11	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	29	6	3	20	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Beijing Guoan win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.