Beijing Workers' Stadium · Referee Abdulrahman Al-Jassim, Qatar · Analysis updated 17:12 UTC
Beijing Guoan vs Pohang Steelers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.91 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beijing Guoan win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beijing Guoan home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pohang Steelers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.91 for Pohang Steelers, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Beijing Guoan
- 2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)
Pohang Steelers
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Beijing Guoan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beijing Guoan win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.