Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.58 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Beijing Guoan home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shenyang Urban away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.58 for Shenyang Urban, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Beijing Guoan win43%

Draw23%

Shenyang Urban win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.7%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.2%

Recent form

Beijing Guoan

2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)

Shenyang Urban

2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianjin Teda · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Yunnan Yukun · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-29T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Better City · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	27	15	7	5	20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	13	4	10	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	12	10	5	19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	13	5	9	3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	11	5	11	-3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	8	14	5	-5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	11	8	8	9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	13	5	9	12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	7	11	9	-5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	11	8	9	6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	10	6	11	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	8	5	14	-11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	8	10	10	-3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	7	5	15	-13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	5	12	10	-7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	6	3	18	-22	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.