· Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Beira-Mar vs União Lamas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Beira-Mar and 0.80 for União Lamas, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Beira-Mar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beira-Mar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União Lamas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–09.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 62.4% vs market 52.7%, edge +9.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +9.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.0% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.5% | 30.7% | 3.26 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.5% | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.8% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.2% | 43.9% | 2.28 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.3% | 69.4% | 1.44 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -9.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Beira-Mar
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro Daire · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 3-3 (D)
União Lamas
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sousense · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Florgrade · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · Beira-Mar 3-3 União Lamas (Taça de Portugal)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Beira-Mar 4-0 União Lamas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Beira-Mar 1-2 União Lamas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Beira-Mar 2-0 União Lamas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · Beira-Mar 0-0 União Lamas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.