Stadionul Ilie Oană · Referee Lawrence Visser, Belgium · Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 2.00 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Austria Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Austria Vienna win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beitar Jerusalem home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Austria Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 2.00 for Austria Vienna, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Beitar Jerusalem
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-4 (L)
Austria Vienna
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Traiskirchen · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 2-1 Austria Vienna (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2026-08-06T17:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 1-2 Austria Vienna (UEFA Europa Conference League)
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Austria Vienna win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.