Taddi Malcha · Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 2.78 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maccabi Tel Aviv win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beitar Jerusalem home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Tel Aviv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–37.5%
- 2–26.0%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Beitar Jerusalem
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-4 (L)
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Haifa · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T17:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-05-02T17:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 4-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-02-16T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 0-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-11-09T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 6-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-05-24T17:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 0-5 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-04-21T17:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 3-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-02-03T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 1-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 3-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-03-10T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 0-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2023-12-27T18:30:00.000Z · Beitar Jerusalem 0-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv (Ligat Ha'al)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maccabi Tel Aviv win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.