National Stadium · Analysis updated 07:15 UTC
Belarus vs Burkina Faso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Belarus and 1.43 for Burkina Faso, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Belarus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belarus win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belarus home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burkina Faso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belarus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Belarus and 1.43 for Burkina Faso, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
Belarus
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Finland · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Finland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Albania · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Burkina Faso · 2-2 (D)
Burkina Faso
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Central African Republic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guinea-Bissau · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belarus win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.