· Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Belasica vs Kozuv Gevgelija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Belasica and 0.99 for Kozuv Gevgelija, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Belasica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belasica win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belasica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kozuv Gevgelija away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belasica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Belasica and 0.99 for Kozuv Gevgelija, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Belasica
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonija GjP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 2-2 (D)
Kozuv Gevgelija
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belasica win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.