· Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Belasica vs Osogovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Belasica and 0.44 for Osogovo, a combined total of 1.61. That distribution gives Belasica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belasica win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belasica home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osogovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–023.4%
- 0–020.0%
- 2–013.6%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
Belasica
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 3-1 (W)
Osogovo
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Detonit Plachkovica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Belasica 3-1 Osogovo (Cup)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Belasica 1-0 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · Belasica 0-0 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2026-01-31T12:00:00.000Z · Belasica 3-0 Osogovo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · Belasica 1-3 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Belasica 0-0 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2024-10-26T11:00:00.000Z · Belasica 1-0 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2024-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Belasica 1-1 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2023-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · Belasica 1-3 Osogovo (Second League)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Belasica 5-0 Osogovo (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | FK Rabotnicki | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pelister | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Teteks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Belasica | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kamjani | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Novaci | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Detonit Plachkovica | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belasica win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.