· Analysis updated 09:21 UTC
Belasica vs Shkupi 1927 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Belasica and 0.60 for Shkupi 1927, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Belasica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Belasica win
81.5% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belasica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shkupi 1927 away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belasica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Belasica and 0.60 for Shkupi 1927, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.4%
- 3–012.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 4–08.2%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Belasica
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonija GjP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 2-2 (D)
Shkupi 1927
- 2026-09-20T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belasica win, at 81.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.