McKellar Park · Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Belconnen United vs Canberra Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Belconnen United and 1.90 for Canberra Olympic, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Canberra Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canberra Olympic win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belconnen United home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canberra Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Belconnen United and 1.90 for Canberra Olympic, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
Belconnen United
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Olympic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-1 (D)
Canberra Olympic
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindabella · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Belconnen United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra Olympic win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.