· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Belenense vs CA Vila Rica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.26 expected goals for Belenense and 1.19 for CA Vila Rica, a combined total of 5.45. That distribution gives Belenense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belenense win
86.8% probability
Expected goals
4.26 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belenense home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belenense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 8% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.26 goals for Belenense and 1.19 for CA Vila Rica, a combined 5.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 66%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–17.0%
- 3–16.6%
- 5–16.0%
- 4–05.9%
- 3–05.6%
Recent form
Belenense
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gavião · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Vila Rica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Belem · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Vila Rica · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Belem · 1-5 (L)
CA Vila Rica
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paraense A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavião | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Sport Belem | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Pedreira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Belenense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Vénus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Pinheirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Tesla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Parauapebas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Paraense SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Altamira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | ESMAC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
| 12 | CA Vila Rica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belenense win, at 86.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.