Stade Roger-Serzian · Analysis updated 07:31 UTC
Belfort vs Racing Besançon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Belfort and 1.35 for Racing Besançon, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Racing Besançon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing Besançon win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belfort home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Besançon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Besançon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 28% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Belfort and 1.35 for Racing Besançon, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Belfort
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivry · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besançon · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mulhouse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torcy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thonon Évian · 5-1 (W)
Racing Besançon
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torcy · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Thonon Évian · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jura Dolois · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontarlier · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T17:00:00.000Z · Belfort 0-1 Racing Besançon (National 3 - Group F)
- 2025-11-01T17:00:00.000Z · Belfort 1-1 Racing Besançon (National 3 - Group F)
- 2025-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Belfort 0-0 Racing Besançon (National 3 - Group H)
- 2024-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · Belfort 1-1 Racing Besançon (National 3 - Group H)
National 3 - Group F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troyes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 2 | Thonon Évian | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 46 |
| 3 | Chalon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 4 | Racing Besançon | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 43 |
| 5 | Jura Dolois | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 42 |
| 6 | Torcy | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 37 |
| 7 | Pontarlier | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Ivry | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 35 |
| 9 | Thaon | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Belfort | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
| 11 | Mulhouse | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | Strasbourg II | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -20 | 28 |
| 13 | Sochaux II | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Besançon | 26 | 2 | 7 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing Besançon win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.