Het Kuipje · Referee M. Kapraly · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Belgium U21 vs Denmark U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Belgium U21 and 0.78 for Denmark U21, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Belgium U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belgium U21 win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Denmark U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belgium U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Belgium U21 and 0.78 for Denmark U21, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.0%
Recent form
Belgium U21
Denmark U21
- 2026-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belgium U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Belarus U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wales U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus U21 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belgium U21 win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.