Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra · Referee A. Merlos · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.52 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Belgrano Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belgrano Cordoba win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belgrano Cordoba home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 2–015.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.40 | 65.9% | 67.4% | 1.48 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 88.0% | 88.5% | 1.13 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 34.9% | 35.3% | 2.83 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.70 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 64.8% | 64.7% | 1.55 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.9% | 23.8% | 4.20 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.2% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.70 | 34.1% | 32.6% | 3.07 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Belgrano Cordoba
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-0 (D)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-12T22:15:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 1-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-06-19T18:50:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 0-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
- 2021-10-19T00:05:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 1-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
- 2021-06-22T22:00:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 1-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
- 2019-10-19T20:10:00.000Z · Belgrano Cordoba 1-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Primera Nacional)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belgrano Cordoba win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.