Bellinzona vs Basel II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bellinzona and 2.06 for Basel II, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Basel II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Basel II win

57.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 2.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bellinzona home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Basel II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Basel II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Bellinzona and 2.06 for Basel II, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bellinzona win21%

Draw21%

Basel II win58%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.5%
0–28.3%
0–18.0%
1–36.7%

Recent form

Bellinzona

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zürich II · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Breitenrain · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grand-Saconnex · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-1 (W)

Basel II

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	11	6	2	3	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Basel II	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	-6	16
10	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Zürich II	11	4	3	4	0	15
12	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	-9	11
15	Lugano II	11	3	0	8	-8	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Basel II win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.