Belmont Swansea vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Belmont Swansea and 1.93 for Adamstown Rosebuds, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Belmont Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Belmont Swansea win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Belmont Swansea home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Adamstown Rosebuds away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Belmont Swansea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Belmont Swansea and 1.93 for Adamstown Rosebuds, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Belmont Swansea win45%

Draw20%

Adamstown Rosebuds win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.5%
2–27.2%
1–16.8%
1–26.6%
3–15.5%

Recent form

Belmont Swansea

2026-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Lambton Jaffas · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 1-3 (L)

Adamstown Rosebuds

2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Belmont Swansea · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston Bears · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooks Hill United · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Valentine · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Northern NSW NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	22	15	4	3	36	49
2	Maitland	22	13	3	6	8	42
3	Weston Bears	22	12	5	5	15	41
4	Edgeworth Eagles	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Belmont Swansea	22	10	5	7	3	35
6	Cooks Hill United	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Valentine	22	7	5	10	-17	26
8	Lambton Jaffas	22	7	4	11	5	25
9	Adamstown Rosebuds	22	6	6	10	-11	24
10	Hamilton Olympic	22	5	6	11	-1	21
11	Kahibah	22	6	2	14	-18	20
12	Charlestown City Blues	22	4	2	16	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Belmont Swansea win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.