· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Belper Town vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Belper Town and 1.53 for Evesham United, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Evesham United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belper Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Evesham United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Evesham United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Belper Town and 1.53 for Evesham United, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Belper Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellingborough Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bourne Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mickleover Sports · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 1-2 (L)
Evesham United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.