Coronation Park · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Belper United vs Hanley Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Belper United and 2.00 for Hanley Town, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Hanley Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hanley Town win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hanley Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hanley Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Belper United and 2.00 for Hanley Town, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Belper United
Hanley Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleshill Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belper United · 5-2 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichfield City · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mossley · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Belper United 2-5 Hanley Town (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hanley Town win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.