Spartak Stadium · Analysis updated 12:26 UTC
Belshina vs FC Minsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Belshina and 1.26 for FC Minsk, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives FC Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Minsk win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belshina home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Minsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–29.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.3% vs market 49.7%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.3% | 1.33 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.4% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 46.1% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 25.0% | 24.8% | 4.03 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 40.7% | 2.46 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Belshina
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 2-0 (W)
FC Minsk
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · Belshina 2-0 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · Belshina 1-2 FC Minsk (Coppa)
- 2026-05-15T16:45:00.000Z · Belshina 1-5 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2026-02-14T11:00:00.000Z · Belshina 1-0 FC Minsk (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-12T15:30:00.000Z · Belshina 3-1 FC Minsk (Coppa)
- 2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Belshina 1-2 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2023-06-25T14:00:00.000Z · Belshina 1-2 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2022-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · Belshina 2-2 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2022-06-26T13:00:00.000Z · Belshina 4-2 FC Minsk (Premier League)
- 2020-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · Belshina 2-2 FC Minsk (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -20 | 23 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Minsk win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.