Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša · Analysis updated 09:50 UTC
Beluša vs Veľké Ludince Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Beluša and 1.38 for Veľké Ludince, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Beluša the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beluša win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beluša home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Veľké Ludince away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Beluša
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajská Lužná · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Piešťany · 1-1 (D)
Veľké Ludince
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zitavany · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajská Lužná · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárno II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gabčíkovo · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T13:30:00.000Z · Beluša 3-0 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2025-10-26T12:30:00.000Z · Beluša 1-0 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Beluša 5-1 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2024-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Beluša 2-2 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2024-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · Beluša 2-1 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2023-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · Beluša 2-1 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2023-03-22T14:15:00.000Z · Beluša 2-1 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2022-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · Beluša 1-4 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2022-05-08T14:30:00.000Z · Beluša 0-1 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
- 2021-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · Beluša 3-0 Veľké Ludince (3. liga - West)
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Púchov | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Beluša | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Nové Zámky | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | DAC II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beluša win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.