· Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Bembibre vs Mirandés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bembibre and 0.52 for Mirandés II, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Bembibre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bembibre win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bembibre home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mirandés II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.7%
- 2–015.1%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Bembibre
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-2 (L)
Mirandés II
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 1-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · Bembibre 2-2 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-12-14T16:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 1-0 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Bembibre 2-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-10-27T16:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 2-2 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-05-05T15:30:00.000Z · Bembibre 3-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-01-13T15:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 2-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-01-22T15:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 0-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 1-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bembibre 0-1 Mirandés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bembibre win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.