Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium · Analysis updated 06:24 UTC
Bendel Insurance vs Rivers United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Bendel Insurance and 1.05 for Rivers United, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Bendel Insurance the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bendel Insurance win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bendel Insurance home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rivers United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 1.96 | 46.0% | 46.3% | 2.16 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.32 | 27.1% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.02 | 45.3% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.82 | 23.9% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.23 | 72.3% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.21 | 73.5% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.84 | 49.7% | 49.8% | 2.01 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.82 | 50.3% | 50.2% | 1.99 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.67 | 54.7% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 76.1% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.64 | 54.2% | 53.7% | 1.86 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 26.9% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -0.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bendel Insurance
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lagos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Barau FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Abia Warriors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ikorodu City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranchers Bees · 1-2 (L)
Rivers United
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Abia Warriors · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ikorodu City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Katsina United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranchers Bees · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kun Khalifat FC · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 1-3 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2025-11-06T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 0-0 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2025-01-30T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 2-2 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2024-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 0-0 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2024-06-12T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 2-1 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2023-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 1-1 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2023-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 1-2 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2019-05-26T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 0-1 Rivers United (NPFL)
- 2019-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Bendel Insurance 1-1 Rivers United (NPFL)
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nasarawa United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Plateau United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Barau FC | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kano Pillars | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Niger Tornadoes | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Doma United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Ikorodu City | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 17 | Abia Warriors | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bendel Insurance win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.