Football Pitch Benesov · Analysis updated 09:13 UTC
Benešov vs Sparta Praha II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Benešov and 1.89 for Sparta Praha II, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sparta Praha II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Praha II win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benešov home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Benešov and 1.89 for Sparta Praha II, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–36.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.15 | 42.2% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 20.6% | 22.1% | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.62 | 55.2% | 55.6% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 41.9% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 77.5% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.55 | 58.1% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 22.4% | 4.46 | -1.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.13 | 80.3% | 78.0% | 1.28 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Benešov
- 2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Admira Praha · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs České Budějovice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Slavia III · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Motorlet Praha · 1-1 (D)
Sparta Praha II
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Loko Vltavín · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Povltava FA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benešov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2020-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · Benešov 0-4 Sparta Praha II (3. liga - CFL A)
- 2019-08-24T08:15:00.000Z · Benešov 0-0 Sparta Praha II (3. liga - CFL A)
3. liga - CFL A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | České Budějovice | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 26 |
| 2 | Králův Dvůr | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Viktoria Plzeň II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Motorlet Praha | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Jiskra Domažlice | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Loko Vltavín | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Slavia III | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Admira Praha | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Příbram II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Dukla Praha II | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Písek | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Benešov | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Aritma Praha | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -17 | 9 |
| 16 | Povltava FA | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -21 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha II win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.