Stadio Ciro Vigorito · Referee Livio Marinelli, Italy · Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Benevento vs Hellas Verona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Benevento and 1.53 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Hellas Verona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hellas Verona win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benevento home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hellas Verona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hellas Verona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Benevento and 1.53 for Hellas Verona, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Benevento
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
Hellas Verona
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Modena · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Pisa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Modena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Sudtirol | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Benevento | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Arezzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Cesena | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Empoli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Vicenza Virtus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hellas Verona win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.