Benfica B vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Benfica B and 1.40 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Casa Pia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Casa Pia to Win

46.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Benfica B win27%

Draw27%

Casa Pia win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–112.7%
0–09.1%
1–09.1%
0–28.9%

Why the model likes this

Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Casa Pia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Benfica B and 1.40 for Casa Pia, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Benfica B

Casa Pia

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.