· Analysis updated 07:39 UTC
Benfica B vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Benfica B and 0.84 for Lusitano Évora 1911, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Benfica B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica B win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica B home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusitano Évora 1911 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Benfica B and 0.84 for Lusitano Évora 1911, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Benfica B
- 2026-09-11T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Academica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 2-1 (W)
Lusitano Évora 1911
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica B win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.