· Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Benfica B vs Mérida AD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benfica B and 1.03 for Mérida AD, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Benfica B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica B win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica B home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mérida AD away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Benfica B and 1.03 for Mérida AD, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Benfica B
- 2026-09-11T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Academica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 2-1 (W)
Mérida AD
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · Benfica B 4-0 Mérida AD (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica B win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.