· Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Nazarenos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Benfica Castelo Branco and 1.16 for Nazarenos, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Benfica Castelo Branco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica Castelo Branco win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica Castelo Branco home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica Castelo Branco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Benfica Castelo Branco and 1.16 for Nazarenos, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Benfica Castelo Branco
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Nogueirense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 3-2 (W)
Nazarenos
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica Castelo Branco win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.