Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro · Analysis updated 00:48 UTC
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Oliveira Hospital Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Benfica Castelo Branco and 1.76 for Oliveira Hospital, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Oliveira Hospital the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oliveira Hospital win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica Castelo Branco home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oliveira Hospital away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Benfica Castelo Branco
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Nogueirense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-3 (L)
Oliveira Hospital
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Olhanense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 3-2 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 0-2 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2021-02-27T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)
- 2020-11-29T11:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 3-1 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)
- 2020-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 3-0 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2019-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Oliveira Hospital (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Mortágua | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | O Elvas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Malveira | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Naval 1893 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | FC Alverca II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Fátima | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oliveira Hospital win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.