Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro · Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Samora Correir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Benfica Castelo Branco and 0.83 for Samora Correir, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Benfica Castelo Branco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica Castelo Branco win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica Castelo Branco home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Samora Correir away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica Castelo Branco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Benfica Castelo Branco and 0.83 for Samora Correir, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Benfica Castelo Branco
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Nogueirense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-3 (L)
Samora Correir
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eléctrico · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peniche · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-03-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Mortágua | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | O Elvas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Atlético Malveira | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Naval 1893 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | FC Alverca II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Fátima | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica Castelo Branco win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.