Stade de la Tuiliere · Referee J. Kooij · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Benfica U19 vs Club Brugge U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Benfica U19 and 1.65 for Club Brugge U19, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Benfica U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica U19 win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Benfica U19 and 1.65 for Club Brugge U19, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Benfica U19
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Leiria U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave U19 · 2-1 (W)
Club Brugge U19
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T12:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 1-3 Club Brugge U19 (UEFA Youth League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica U19 win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.