Benfica Campus · Referee K. Zabroda · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Benfica U19 vs Napoli U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.05 expected goals for Benfica U19 and 0.77 for Napoli U19, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Benfica U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica U19 win
82.2% probability
Expected goals
3.05 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napoli U19 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.05 goals for Benfica U19 and 0.77 for Napoli U19, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Benfica U19
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Leiria U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave U19 · 2-1 (W)
Napoli U19
- 2025-12-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabağ U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PSV U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP U19 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-10T11:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 3-0 Napoli U19 (UEFA Youth League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica U19 win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.