· Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
Benfica U19 vs União Leiria U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.94 expected goals for Benfica U19 and 0.71 for União Leiria U19, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Benfica U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benfica U19 win
82.3% probability
Expected goals
2.94 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benfica U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União Leiria U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.94 goals for Benfica U19 and 0.71 for União Leiria U19, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 3–011.1%
- 4–08.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Benfica U19
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Leiria U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave U19 · 2-1 (W)
União Leiria U19
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriental U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica U19 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia U19 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 5-2 União Leiria U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 3-0 União Leiria U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 1-1 União Leiria U19 (Júniores U19)
- 2025-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Benfica U19 4-1 União Leiria U19 (Júniores U19)
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica U19 win, at 82.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.