Sree Kanteerava Stadium · Referee Lakshay Lakshay, India · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Bengaluru vs Chennaiyin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bengaluru and 0.97 for Chennaiyin, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Bengaluru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bengaluru win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bengaluru home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bengaluru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Bengaluru and 0.97 for Chennaiyin, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
Bengaluru
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chennaiyin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Delhi · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chennaiyin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamshedpur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odisha · 1-1 (D)
Chennaiyin
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Indian Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorthEast United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Bengaluru | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Kerala Blasters | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Churchill Brothers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Odisha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Mumbai City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Goa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chennaiyin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Inter Kashi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | SC Delhi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bengaluru win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.