· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Benkovski Isperih vs Dorostol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.24 expected goals for Benkovski Isperih and 1.18 for Dorostol, a combined total of 4.41. That distribution gives Benkovski Isperih the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Benkovski Isperih win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
3.24 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benkovski Isperih home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorostol away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 3–06.8%
- 4–16.5%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Benkovski Isperih
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 5-1 (W)
Dorostol
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa Targovishte · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-18T13:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 3-0 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 1-0 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 2-3 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 0-2 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 3-2 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Benkovski Isperih 0-1 Dorostol (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benkovski Isperih win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.