· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Bentonit Ijevan vs Lernayin Artsakh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.34 expected goals for Bentonit Ijevan and 2.16 for Lernayin Artsakh, a combined total of 5.49. That distribution gives Bentonit Ijevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bentonit Ijevan win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
3.34 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bentonit Ijevan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lernayin Artsakh away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.5%
- 2–25.3%
- 4–24.9%
- 2–14.9%
Recent form
Bentonit Ijevan
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lernayin Artsakh · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 3-3 (D)
Lernayin Artsakh
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Banants II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecoville · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-11T11:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-0 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2025-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 6-0 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2025-04-30T12:00:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-1 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2024-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-3 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2024-08-20T12:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 0-7 Lernayin Artsakh (Cup)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | BKMA II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Bentonit Ijevan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Andranik | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Lernayin Artsakh | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Araks Ararat | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Mika | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Banants II | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Noah II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Sardarapat 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bentonit Ijevan win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.