· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Bentonit Ijevan vs Lernayin Artsakh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Bentonit Ijevan and 1.83 for Lernayin Artsakh, a combined total of 4.73. That distribution gives Bentonit Ijevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bentonit Ijevan win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
2.90 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bentonit Ijevan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lernayin Artsakh away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.2%
- 3–26.0%
- 4–14.8%
Recent form
Bentonit Ijevan
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lernayin Artsakh · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 3-3 (D)
Lernayin Artsakh
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Banants II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecoville · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-11T11:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-0 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2025-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 6-0 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2025-04-30T12:00:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-1 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2024-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 3-3 Lernayin Artsakh (First League)
- 2024-08-20T12:30:00.000Z · Bentonit Ijevan 0-7 Lernayin Artsakh (Cup)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Pyunik II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bentonit Ijevan win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.