· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Bentonit Ijevan vs Olympia Yerevan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Bentonit Ijevan and 2.33 for Olympia Yerevan, a combined total of 4.34. That distribution gives Olympia Yerevan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympia Yerevan win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bentonit Ijevan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympia Yerevan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Bentonit Ijevan and 2.33 for Olympia Yerevan, a combined 4.34 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Bentonit Ijevan
- 2026-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Lernayin Artsakh · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mika · 3-3 (D)
Olympia Yerevan
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | BKMA II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Bentonit Ijevan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Andranik | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Lernayin Artsakh | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Araks Ararat | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Mika | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Banants II | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Noah II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Sardarapat 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympia Yerevan win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.