· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Berceo vs Alfaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Berceo and 1.30 for Alfaro, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Berceo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Berceo win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Berceo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berceo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Berceo and 1.30 for Alfaro, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Berceo
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcial · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cenicero · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs River Ebro · 7-0 (W)
Alfaro
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Berceo win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.