· Analysis updated 12:02 UTC
Berceo vs San Marcial Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Berceo and 0.96 for San Marcial, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Berceo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Berceo win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Berceo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Marcial away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berceo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Berceo and 0.96 for San Marcial, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 77.4% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +2.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.8% | 76.9% | 1.30 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.60 | 56.1% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 5.00 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 23.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 47.8% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -4.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Berceo
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcial · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cenicero · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs River Ebro · 7-0 (W)
San Marcial
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Yagüe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cenicero · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs River Ebro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Comillas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · Berceo 2-1 San Marcial (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2026-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Berceo 1-1 San Marcial (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2025-09-28T11:15:00.000Z · Berceo 2-3 San Marcial (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Berceo win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.