Ludo Coeckstadion · Analysis updated 05:47 UTC
Berchem Sport vs Berg en Dal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Berchem Sport and 1.05 for Berg en Dal, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Berchem Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Berchem Sport win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Berchem Sport home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berchem Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Berchem Sport and 1.05 for Berg en Dal, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Berchem Sport
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tongeren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Berg en Dal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Rotselaar · 1-1 (D)
Berg en Dal
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | De Kempen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Racing Mechelen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Royal Antwerp II | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Hades | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Eendracht Termien | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Bocholt | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Sint-Truiden II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Wilrijk | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Rupel Boom | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Nijlen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Diegem Sport | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Rotselaar | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Wellen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Cappellen | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Tongeren | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Berchem Sport win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.