· Analysis updated 17:06 UTC
Berdenia Berbourg vs US Mondorf-les-bains Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Berdenia Berbourg and 1.95 for US Mondorf-les-bains, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives US Mondorf-les-bains the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Mondorf-les-bains win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Berdenia Berbourg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Mondorf-les-bains away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates US Mondorf-les-bains to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Berdenia Berbourg and 1.95 for US Mondorf-les-bains, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
Berdenia Berbourg
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alliance Aischdall · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orania Vianden · 3-4 (L)
US Mondorf-les-bains
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Mondorf-les-bains win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.