· Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Bergantiños vs Leioa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.87 expected goals for Bergantiños and 1.05 for Leioa, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Bergantiños the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bergantiños win
74.6% probability
Expected goals
2.87 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bergantiños home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leioa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bergantiños to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 14% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.87 goals for Bergantiños and 1.05 for Leioa, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–07.8%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Bergantiños
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugalete · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Santa Marta · 0-1 (L)
Leioa
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amurrio Club · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar III · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs R. Union B · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Federacion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navalcarnero | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Salamanca UDS | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Real Murcia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Terrassa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | UD Santa Marta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Conil | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Dos Hermanas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | Bergantiños | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Cacereño | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Comillas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Orihuela | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Saguntino | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Binéfar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Badalona II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Compostela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Derio | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Caudal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | L'Hospitalet | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Mensajero | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Torrent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Vimenor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Melilla | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Porreres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | San Juan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | San Fernando CD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | CF Talavera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Motril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | UD San Pedro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Leioa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Sporting Ceuta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bergantiños win, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.