BELKAW-Arena · Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Bergisch Gladbach vs Pesch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Bergisch Gladbach and 1.10 for Pesch, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Bergisch Gladbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bergisch Gladbach win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bergisch Gladbach home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pesch away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bergisch Gladbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Bergisch Gladbach and 1.10 for Pesch, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Bergisch Gladbach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 4-2 (W)
Pesch
- 2026-06-07T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Siegburger SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Weiden · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Mittelrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wegberg-Beeck | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | SSV Merten | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frechen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Düren Merzenich | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Lindenthal-Hohenlind | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Fortuna Köln II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | VfL Vichttal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Bornheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Siegburger SV | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Hürth | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Chlodwig Zulpich | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Hennef 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Porz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Neunkirchen-Seelscheid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bergisch Gladbach win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.