· Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
Bergisch Gladbach vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Bergisch Gladbach and 1.68 for Viktoria Jüchen-Garz., a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Bergisch Gladbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bergisch Gladbach win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bergisch Gladbach home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bergisch Gladbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Bergisch Gladbach and 1.68 for Viktoria Jüchen-Garz., a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Bergisch Gladbach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 4-2 (W)
Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Baumberg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC St. Tönis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Holzheimer SG · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Bergisch Gladbach 4-1 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bergisch Gladbach win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.